Citigroup has lowered its 12-month price outlook for bitcoin and ether, pointing to slowing momentum in U.S. crypto legislation, softer network activity and scaled-back expectations for ETF inflows.
The bank now forecasts bitcoin (BTC) at $112,000 over the next year, down from a prior estimate of $143,000. Ether (ETH) is projected to reach $3,175, reduced from an earlier target of $4,304.
Despite the cuts, both assets are still expected to deliver solid gains from current levels. Bitcoin was trading around $74,000 at the time of writing, while ether hovered near $2,330.
Citi said ETF flows remain the most important driver of upside, though it has trimmed its demand assumptions. The bank now expects roughly $10 billion in inflows for bitcoin ETFs and $2.5 billion for ether over the next 12 months, even as recent demand has held up modestly amid geopolitical uncertainty.
The broader crypto market has struggled to regain strong momentum since bitcoin’s record highs in October. Prices have drifted lower as risk appetite weakened and post-halving enthusiasm faded. Bitcoin has traded below key technical levels, while ether has lagged further due to subdued onchain activity. Still, consistent ETF inflows have helped stabilize the market despite macro and geopolitical headwinds.
According to Citi, the regulatory backdrop in the U.S. remains a key swing factor. The bank noted that the window to pass comprehensive digital asset legislation this year is narrowing, with market-implied odds now around 60%. While global regulatory trends remain supportive, a clear U.S. framework is seen as a more powerful catalyst for institutional capital than incremental rulemaking.
At the center of this uncertainty is the CLARITY Act, a broad market-structure proposal that has passed the House but remains stalled in the Senate as lawmakers debate competing versions.
The bill is widely viewed as critical because it would clarify how digital assets are classified and determine oversight between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission — a long-running source of regulatory ambiguity. By defining token categories and setting registration frameworks for exchanges, the legislation aims to reduce uncertainty and encourage greater institutional participation.
Citi also flagged weakening market momentum since bitcoin’s October peak, citing futures liquidations, positioning fatigue and prices holding below key technical thresholds. In the near term, bitcoin may continue to trade in a range, with $70,000 seen as a key psychological level tied to pre-election pricing.
The bank outlined a range of scenarios. In a bullish case, stronger investor adoption — particularly through ETFs — could push bitcoin to $165,000 and ether to $4,488. In a bearish scenario shaped by recessionary macro conditions, targets fall to $58,000 for BTC and $1,198 for ETH.
Ether’s outlook remains more uncertain, Citi noted, given its reliance on network activity, which has recently been weak. Still, potential catalysts remain, including growth in stablecoins, expanding tokenization trends and possible regulatory developments around decentralized finance, which could help support usage and demand over time.
