Bitcoin is heading for its sharpest weekly drop since March as U.S. demand weakens, reflected in a deepening negative Coinbase premium and surging volumes in spot bitcoin ETFs.
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which tracks how bitcoin’s price on Coinbase compares with the global market average, has declined to -0.15%—its most negative level since the first quarter. A discount on Coinbase signals soft U.S. buying interest, increased selling pressure, and reduced institutional appetite. This divergence first appeared following the Oct. 10 liquidation wave and has continued throughout November.
The deteriorating sentiment matches bitcoin’s broader performance. BTC$90,722.88 is down more than 11% for the week, briefly falling below $81,000 before rebounding toward $84,000. November has been particularly painful, with bitcoin sliding 23%, its worst monthly showing since June 2022, when it dropped 38%.
Signs of Capitulation Emerging?
Weakness has also been evident in U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, which saw steady outflows for most of November.
Related: Bitcoin ETFs Have Bled a Record $3.79B in November
But Friday bucked the trend. ETFs recorded $238.4 million in inflows—the largest since Nov. 11—according to Farside. Trading activity soared to an all-time high of $11.5 billion, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas reported, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone generating $8 billion of that volume.
Balchunas also highlighted that IBIT saw record put-option activity this week, indicating that some investors are hedging long positions rather than exiting entirely. “This is something that may help people stay the course—they can always buy some puts as a hedge while staying long,” he noted.
Bitcoin is now 36% below its October all-time high, and Friday’s high-volume activity may reflect a capitulation-style event, often seen near local bottoms. While confirmation is far from certain, the market may be attempting to stabilize in the low $80,000 range.
Supporting this possibility, Glassnode recorded more than $4 billion in realized losses on Friday—the highest since March 2023 during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis—adding another potential capitulation signal.
