Bitcoin, Ether Options Expiry Worth $17B Sparks Volatility Watch Ahead of Fed Decision
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) traders are bracing for a surge in volatility as roughly $17 billion in options contracts are set to expire Friday on Deribit, coinciding with this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting and major tech earnings releases.
Deribit data show 72,716 bitcoin call contracts and 54,945 put contracts coming due, representing a combined $14.4 billion notional open interest. Ether options account for an additional $2.6 billion, with 375,225 calls and 262,850 puts outstanding.
The bulk of open interest — around 82.5% — sits out-of-the-money (OTM), highlighting speculative positioning. Call options are concentrated around strike prices of $120,000 and $130,000, while puts cluster near $100,000 and $110,000, reflecting divergent views on bitcoin’s near-term direction.
At current levels near $113,000, bitcoin trades close to its max pain point of $114,000, where the largest number of contracts expire worthless. Analysts note that prices often gravitate toward this zone ahead of expiry as market makers hedge exposure — a dynamic that may influence short-term price action.
Ether shows a similar setup, with its max pain level around $4,110 compared to a spot price near $4,000, suggesting tight positioning heading into Friday’s expiry.
The event comes amid intensifying macro uncertainty. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision and earnings from U.S. tech heavyweights could further amplify market moves as traders reassess risk exposure across asset classes.
Meanwhile, derivatives market structure continues to evolve. According to Checkonchain, Deribit’s share of global bitcoin options open interest has dropped from 80% before IBIT introduced options in late 2024 to 44%, now roughly matching IBIT’s market presence — a sign of rising institutional diversification in crypto derivatives.
As expiry nears, traders expect short-term turbulence, with bitcoin and ether likely to find fresh directional cues once the $17 billion options overhang clears.
