Crypto Markets Remain Under Pressure as Bitcoin Faces Key Test
Major cryptocurrencies—including Bitcoin (BTC $92,686.72), Ether (ETH $3,084.29), XRP ($2.2571), and Solana (SOL $143.04)—consolidated over the past 24 hours after a turbulent week that pushed prices to multi-month lows.
Market sentiment remains firmly in “extreme fear,” with the Fear and Greed Index at 12/100. Historically, prolonged readings below 20/100 often precede a market rebound, though volatility remains high.
Altcoins continue to lag, hindered by low liquidity and weak demand for speculative assets. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) has fallen 30% over the past month, underperforming the CoinDesk 5 (CD5), which is down 23%.
Bitcoin is at a critical juncture: a rejection near $95,000 could signal a fourth lower high, confirming a downtrend. A recovery above $90,000 may restore confidence, while a drop toward $81,000 could trigger panic selling, with altcoins likely to suffer the most due to shallow liquidity.
Derivatives and Volatility
- BVIV Volatility: Volmex’s 30-day options-based implied volatility index bounced to 60% from an earlier 57.55%, reflecting renewed downside pressure.
- Options Positioning: Demand for BTC puts on Deribit has risen, while call overwriting has declined. The $80,000 BTC put now holds over $2 billion in open interest. BTC and ETH call-put skews remain defensive or negative.
- Block Flows: Strategies benefiting from broader spot price ranges, such as BTC call condors and put calendar spreads, dominated the last 24 hours.
- Futures: XRP, DOGE, and HYPE saw rising open interest, while BCH fell 5%.
Altcoin Market Snapshot
By Oliver Knight
Altcoins struggled against BTC in the past 24 hours due to ongoing liquidity challenges. Market depth is low for TON ($1.6367) and DOT ($2.3597), meaning modest trades can move prices by 2% or more. Smaller altcoins are even more sensitive, amplifying volatility during liquidations or stop-loss triggers.
CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season indicator fell to 23/100 from 30/100, reflecting a shift toward bitcoin or stablecoins over speculative altcoins.
Technically, markets remain in a neutral zone, with no clear overbought or oversold conditions. The near-term trajectory hinges on bitcoin reclaiming the $90,000 range; failure to do so could trigger another wave of selling, disproportionately affecting altcoins due to thin liquidity.
