Bitcoin slipped overnight, pulling the broader crypto market lower as traders stayed cautious amid limited directional cues. BTC traded at $88,248.23, down 1.5% from early Wednesday highs, while the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index fell 1.6%, with all constituents in the red.
The drop extends a downtrend that began in early October after bitcoin failed to break above $94,700 last week. To reverse the bearish trend, BTC would need to reclaim $95,000 and ideally push toward $98,000, though year-end catalysts remain absent. The average crypto relative strength index (RSI) sits at 38.49, indicating oversold conditions and the potential for a short-term relief rally.
Derivatives and positioning
BTC’s 30-day implied volatility (Volmex BVIV) remains below an annualized 50%, suggesting calm ahead of Thursday’s U.S. inflation report and Friday’s Bank of Japan rate decision. Historical volatility over 90 days is now comparable to major tech stocks like Tesla and Nvidia, reflecting market maturation.
Bitfinex BTC longs reached their highest levels since February, while futures open interest fell across most tokens, including BTC and ether (ETH $2,973.28), with exceptions such as BCH, UNI, and NEAR showing moderate increases. On Deribit, put writing at $85,000 and call writing at $95,000–$100,000 signals a likely broad trading range. Block trades featured BTC straddles, risk reversals, and ETH call calendar spreads. Puts remain pricier than calls, indicating persistent downside concern and call overwriting.
Altcoin market
Altcoins lagged BTC, pushing dominance to 58.7% from 57.8% on Nov. 26. ASTER and TAO led losses among top-100 tokens, down 6.5% and 6.1% since midnight UTC. ASTER’s decline extends a bearish trend exceeding 20% since Monday, reflecting fading BNB Chain derivatives hype.
Bullish exceptions included Monero (XMR $438.72), up 0.2%, and Cardano’s privacy token NIGHT, rising more than 5% in European morning trading. The “altcoin season” indicator remains at 19/100, signaling a continued market focus on bitcoin following October’s liquidation-driven downturn.
