Bitcoin’s $12B Options Expiry Unlikely to Shake Markets, Says Deribit
Despite an upcoming $12.13 billion Bitcoin (BTC) options expiry on Deribit this Friday, key market indicators suggest that volatility will remain subdued.
A total of 139,000 BTC option contracts—representing 45% of all open BTC options—are set to expire. While large expiries often lead to heightened market swings, Deribit told CoinDesk that this event is unlikely to cause major disruptions.
The majority of open interest (65%) is in call options, which offer traders the right to buy BTC at a set price, while the remainder consists of put options used for downside protection. Historically, expiries of this size have impacted market movements, but current metrics point to stability.
Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (DVOL) has declined from 62% to 48% in recent weeks, indicating lower expectations for sudden price swings. Additionally, the annualized perpetual futures basis is hovering around 5%, reflecting a steady funding environment.
“Given the low DVOL, moderate futures basis, and balanced options positioning, this expiry is expected to pass with minimal market disruption—unless an external catalyst emerges,” said Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers.
Traders Show Caution for the Short Term, But Long-Term Outlook Remains Strong
While some traders are hedging against short-term downside risks, broader sentiment remains constructive.
“3-Day Put-Call Skew is slightly positive, signaling demand for immediate downside protection, while 30-Day Put-Call Skew is slightly negative, indicating an overall bullish outlook in the medium term,” Strijers noted.
Ether (ETH) options worth $2.8 billion are also set to expire on Friday, though they are expected to have a similarly muted impact on the market.
