Bitcoin’s Stability Could Be Deceptive as Market Prepares for Volatility, Derive Warns
Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent period of calm may be setting the stage for a major price swing, according to Nick Forster, founder of the decentralized crypto options platform Derive.
Since mid-March, BTC has been range-bound between $80K and $85K following a sharp decline from $100K, triggered by factors such as President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and investor disappointment over the U.S. government’s lack of new Bitcoin acquisitions.
The market’s reduced volatility has caused key indicators to drop to multi-week lows, but Forster believes this phase is temporary.
“Bitcoin’s weekly at-the-money (ATM) volatility has declined to 49%, nearing the lowest levels seen this month,” Forster told CoinDesk. “Realized volatility has also fallen sharply, from 91% earlier in March to 54% today, suggesting that a major price move is likely ahead.”
Forster emphasized that volatility is direction-neutral—while it signals a breakout, it doesn’t indicate whether Bitcoin will surge or plunge.
“Periods of low volatility are always followed by an increase in price swings,” he explained. “The market is poised for movement, but the direction remains uncertain.”
Several factors could act as catalysts for a volatility spike, including geopolitical tensions, regulatory developments under the Trump administration, and macroeconomic shifts.
The Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision could also influence Bitcoin’s trajectory. Traders are currently pricing in two or three rate cuts this year, but if the Fed maintains a cautious stance, risk assets like BTC could face renewed selling pressure.
BlackRock analysts recently warned that expectations for aggressive monetary easing might be premature. “The market is anticipating multiple rate cuts, but inflation concerns could limit how much the Fed can actually deliver,” they wrote in a research note.
Should traditional markets continue to weaken, Bitcoin’s expected volatility spike could trigger another downturn, potentially pushing prices below critical support levels.
Derive, which has facilitated over $15 billion in trading volume and manages nearly $100 million in total value locked (TVL), continues to monitor these developments as traders brace for Bitcoin’s next big move.
