Ethereum’s ether (ETH) is facing an uphill battle to reclaim its year-to-date high of $4,000 by the end of December, with current market probabilities suggesting only a 10% chance of such a rally, according to Amberdata.
While bitcoin (BTC) has surged 109% this year to break past $90,000, ETH has managed a modest 36% gain, still trading at $3,100 and far below its all-time high of $4,832 from 2021. This stark contrast reflects a growing disparity in investor confidence and market momentum between the two leading cryptocurrencies.
Amberdata’s research, based on options data from Deribit, shows traders placing a low probability on significant upward movement for ether. “ETH lacks a compelling narrative right now,” said Greg Magadini, Amberdata’s Director of Derivatives. “The deflationary edge ETH once had is eroding as more activity moves to layer-2 solutions, reducing transaction demand on the main chain and dampening its supply constraints.”
Adding to the cautious outlook is Ethereum’s long development timeline for innovations like the proposed Beam Chain. Announced at the recent Devon gathering, Beam Chain aims to reduce block times and boost on-chain activity, but implementation could take years. In the meantime, Ethereum struggles to compete with faster-moving layer-2 ecosystems and the broader narrative dominance of bitcoin.
Some analysts suggest that ether could still rise alongside bitcoin if BTC continues its climb to new highs, but ETH’s underperformance relative to BTC is likely to persist.
“The broader rally might lift ETH above $4,000, but it will remain in bitcoin’s shadow,” said one trader. “Without a clear catalyst or resolution to its scaling challenges, Ethereum is struggling to capture the spotlight it once enjoyed.”
