Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Plunge as Jobs Data Delays Add Uncertainty
Markets have sharply reduced bets on a December Federal Reserve rate cut following the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ announcement that October jobs data will not be released, with the November report delayed until after the Fed’s final policy meeting of 2025.
Traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange now see just a 33% chance of a year-end rate cut, down from 50% a day earlier. Less than a month ago, markets were pricing in near certainty for easing. The drop in expectations followed Chairman Jerome Powell’s late-October remarks, which signaled reluctance for further monetary easing, and subsequent comments that highlighted divisions among Fed officials.
The news has weighed heavily on crypto and tech markets. Bitcoin has fallen from $110,000 before Powell’s comments to roughly $89,000, while crypto-linked equities have experienced steeper losses. Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) dropped 10% Wednesday and nearly 50% over the past month, while Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) declined roughly 10% today and nearly 40% since late October.
Without timely employment data, the Fed will face its December meeting with less clarity. Historically, the central bank has relied on up-to-date labor and inflation metrics to guide policy. With no fresh jobs numbers to show a material slowdown, hawkish officials are unlikely to support an additional rate cut.
Adding to the uncertainty, former President Donald Trump said at an investment forum this week that he would have fired Powell if not for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s advice to let him serve until 2026.
The only jobs report available before the Fed convenes is the September nonfarm payrolls data, due Thursday. Given its age, it is expected to have limited influence on the Fed’s decision, leaving markets to contend with uncertainty heading into the year-end.
