Asian markets surged in a broad risk-on move, with regional equities posting their strongest session in months and U.S. futures advancing, after fresh signals pointed to a potential end to the Iran conflict. Optimism picked up after Donald Trump said the war could conclude within two to three weeks, even without a formal agreement with Tehran, and confirmed he would deliver a national address outlining next steps.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped 4%, its best performance since the conflict began, with gains heavily concentrated in technology stocks. The rally carried into U.S. markets, where S&P 500 futures moved sharply higher, putting the index on track for its biggest one-day advance since May. In commodities, oil trimmed losses as reports emerged that the UAE may step in to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, raising the prospect of deeper regional involvement.
Despite the strong move in equities, crypto markets remained relatively subdued. Bitcoin held near $67,950, up just 0.2% on the day, continuing to trade within its multi-week range. Ether outperformed slightly, rising 1.6% to $2,100. XRP, dogecoin, and BNB recorded modest gains, while Solana underperformed, slipping 0.7% and extending its weekly decline.
The divergence between crypto and traditional markets remains a key theme. Equities have reacted sharply to each geopolitical development, while bitcoin has largely stayed confined between $65,000 and $73,000, reflecting steady but cautious positioning rather than aggressive risk-taking.
Geopolitical developments continue to drive sentiment. Trump’s comments around a potential timeline for ending the war, combined with his upcoming address, have fueled expectations of de-escalation. Meanwhile, Iran’s leadership has indicated a willingness to end the conflict, though it is seeking assurances to prevent future escalation.
At the same time, structural developments within crypto are beginning to build. Morgan Stanley has received approval to offer a bitcoin ETF with a fee of just 14 basis points—well below the industry average—opening access to a $6.2 trillion advisory network. The move significantly expands the distribution pipeline for bitcoin exposure among institutional and high-net-worth investors.
Market participants see multiple catalysts that could support bitcoin in the near term, including broader institutional access, continued inflows into crypto investment products, and the possibility of a swift resolution to geopolitical tensions.
Gold, typically a safe-haven during conflict, has shown an unusual pattern. While it has risen for four consecutive sessions toward $4,700, it recently posted its steepest monthly decline since 2008, highlighting a break from historical norms.
Attention now turns to Trump’s address, which could prove decisive for market direction. Without clear signs of de-escalation, the current rally in risk assets may struggle to sustain momentum, as investors increasingly look for concrete outcomes rather than headline-driven optimism.
