Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, says Bitcoin’s outlook for 2026 is unusually unpredictable, even as the firm maintains a long-term bullish stance.
In a Dec. 21 post on X, Thorn described the coming year as “too chaotic to predict,” pointing to macro uncertainty, political risks, and uneven momentum in crypto markets. His comments were based on Galaxy Research’s Dec. 18 report, “26 Crypto, Bitcoin, DeFi, and AI Predictions for 2026,” which details the firm’s expectations for crypto markets and institutional adoption.
Thorn noted that the broader crypto market remains deep in a bear phase, with Bitcoin struggling to regain sustained bullish momentum. He warned that downside risks persist until Bitcoin decisively breaks above the $100,000–$105,000 range.
Options markets signal wide uncertainty
Derivatives markets reflect the unpredictability. According to Thorn, Bitcoin options imply roughly equal chances of widely divergent outcomes in 2026, with traders pricing similar odds for mid-year prices near $70,000 or $130,000, and year-end levels near $50,000 or $250,000. This indicates that institutional players are preparing for large swings rather than a clear trend.
Signs of structural maturity
Despite short-term volatility, Thorn sees evidence of a maturing market. Long-term Bitcoin volatility has been declining, partly due to institutional strategies such as options overwriting and yield-generation programs, which tend to smooth extreme price movements.
The volatility smile—which measures how option prices vary across strike levels—also shows evolution. Downside protection is now priced higher than upside exposure, a characteristic more typical of established assets like equities or commodities than high-growth markets.
Why a potentially quiet year may be positive
For Thorn, these trends suggest that even a range-bound or “boring” 2026 would not undermine Bitcoin’s long-term potential. Institutional adoption and market maturation are expected to continue, even if prices drift toward long-term technical levels such as the 200-week moving average.
Galaxy’s report highlights that mainstream asset-allocation platforms could embed Bitcoin into standard portfolios, generating persistent flows regardless of market cycles. Thorn sees expanding institutional access, easing monetary conditions, and demand for alternatives to fiat as key long-term drivers.
Looking further ahead, Galaxy predicts Bitcoin could follow gold’s path as a hedge against monetary debasement, potentially reaching $250,000 by the end of 2027.
