KBW Initiates Coverage on Gemini With ‘Market Perform’ Rating, Citing Long-Term Upside but Near-Term Losses
Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ: GEMI) received a market perform rating from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW), which initiated coverage of the newly listed crypto exchange with a $27 price target. The investment bank praised Gemini’s long-term positioning but said profitability remains out of reach in the near term.
In the note, KBW analyst Bill Papanastasiou described Gemini as a “well-constructed digital asset platform” built for durable growth, but noted that its discounted valuation versus Coinbase is justified given “heightened execution and market risks.”
Gemini, founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, made its market debut last month at $28 per share, valuing the company at over $3 billion.
KBW said Gemini’s recent resolution of issues surrounding its Earn program should allow the firm to refocus on product development and marketing efforts. The bank also cited the exchange’s new partnership with Nasdaq, estimating it could generate up to $47.7 million in incremental near-term revenue through custody and staking solutions, with additional upside tied to enterprise tokenization services.
The report highlighted Gemini’s unified app experience and high insider ownership as structural strengths that contribute to user retention and platform stability, especially amid volatile crypto markets.
Looking ahead, KBW forecasts 53% compound annual revenue growth through 2028 — faster than industry averages — and expects Gemini to reach profitability by late 2027.
“Gemini offers a balanced mix of risk and opportunity,” Papanastasiou wrote, noting that while execution challenges remain, the platform is well-positioned for a multi-year crypto expansion cycle.
GEMI shares were up 2% in premarket trading at $25.80.
