In 2025, investors have overwhelmingly favored precious metals like gold and silver to hedge against potential declines in the value of fiat currency, leaving bitcoin (BTC $87,783.77) largely on the sidelines.
Gold has surged nearly 70% since January 1, while silver has jumped around 150%, dramatically outpacing bitcoin, which has fallen roughly 6% over the same period. Analysts attribute the rally to the so-called “debasement trade” — a strategy that involves buying assets perceived as stores of value in anticipation of fiat currency depreciation caused by expansive monetary policies and rising fiscal deficits. As purchasing power erodes, the price of these assets typically rises.
Earlier this year, bitcoin bulls highlighted the debasement trade as a key driver for their optimistic year-end targets. However, bitcoin’s rally stalled above $126,000 in early October and has since retraced to below $90,000.
Gold’s performance has been particularly impressive from a technical standpoint. According to The Kobeissi Letter, the metal has remained above its 200-day simple moving average — a widely followed long-term trend indicator — for roughly 550 consecutive trading days. This streak is the second-longest on record, trailing only the roughly 750-session run following the 2008 financial crisis.
Despite gold’s dominance this year, crypto analysts remain confident in bitcoin’s eventual catch-up. Historical patterns suggest bitcoin often lags behind gold but rallies with significant momentum once it aligns.
“Gold has been leading BTC by roughly 26 weeks, and its consolidation last summer mirrors Bitcoin’s pause today,” said Lewis Harland, portfolio manager at Re7 Capital. “The renewed strength in gold reflects growing market expectations for further currency debasement and fiscal strain in 2026 — conditions that have historically supported both assets, with bitcoin responding with higher volatility.”
Predictions markets appear to echo this view. As of this writing, traders on Polymarket assigned a 40% probability that bitcoin will be the best-performing asset in 2026, compared with 33% for gold and 25% for equities.
