Viewed through the lens of U.S. money supply, gold has returned to levels historically associated with major peaks, while bitcoin is pulling back toward a support zone that has played an important role in past cycles.
Gold is now testing a critical threshold relative to U.S. money supply (M2SL), a level last reached in 2011 and previously exceeded only during the 1970s. That earlier period ultimately produced a powerful multi-year rally, with gold prices more than tripling to a then-record near $700 an ounce.
Bitcoin, frequently described by advocates as “digital gold,” is moving in the opposite direction. The cryptocurrency has slid toward a key support area, revisiting price levels last seen during April’s so-called “tariff tantrum.”
In 2011, gold traded near $1,800 an ounce. Today, it is priced around $4,500. When compared with the total stock of dollars circulating in the U.S. economy — including cash, bank deposits and liquid savings — gold is once again pushing into a resistance zone that has historically marked important inflection points.
The move has been fueled by a roughly 70% surge in gold prices this year. Bitcoin, by contrast, is down about 10% over the same period. Even so, bitcoin continues to post higher highs relative to the U.S. money supply each cycle, and the current pullback is testing a level that also marked the prior cycle peak in March 2024.
The divergence highlights the differing paths of gold and bitcoin as both assets approach technically significant levels.
