Bitcoin’s onchain data is flashing signs of supply overhang and muted participation, while gold’s surge is increasingly being priced as a lasting macro regime shift rather than a fleeting spike.
Gold’s move above $5,000 an ounce is gaining credibility as bitcoin continues to drift sideways near $87,000 in early Hong Kong trading, reflecting a low-conviction crypto market still grappling with internal supply pressures. The growing divergence appears rooted more in market structure than in sentiment alone.
According to CryptoQuant, bitcoin holders have begun selling at a loss for the first time since October 2023. Older holders are exiting positions as newer buyers step in — a rotation that typically signals consolidation rather than the start of a renewed uptrend.
Glassnode echoes that assessment, noting that bitcoin rallies have repeatedly run into selling pressure near the cost bases of recent buyers. The firm says price remains capped below key short-term holder levels around $98,000, with a dense supply cluster above $100,000 that is likely to limit upside in the near term.
Recent rebounds have drawn out breakeven sellers and loss-motivated exits from investors who accumulated near the 2025 highs, reinforcing overhead resistance and keeping rallies fragile.
Derivatives and prediction markets point to the same conclusion. Futures volumes remain subdued, leverage deployment is limited, and recent price moves have occurred in thin liquidity rather than alongside expanding participation. On Polymarket, traders are increasingly betting that gold’s strength will persist — with higher odds assigned to prices holding above $5,500 through mid-year — while expectations for a near-term bitcoin breakout continue to fade.
For now, gold appears to be absorbing global macro stress, while bitcoin remains in a digestion phase, working through internal supply dynamics rather than responding to external catalysts.
Market snapshot
- BTC: Bitcoin is trading around $87,000, struggling to gain traction as overhead supply, thin participation, and subdued leverage leave rallies vulnerable to renewed distribution.
- ETH: Ether is underperforming bitcoin, with weak spot demand, muted derivatives activity, and little evidence of a broader rotation back into higher-beta crypto assets.
- Gold: Gold surged to a fresh record above $5,000 an ounce, supported by geopolitical risks, sustained central-bank buying, and a weaker U.S. dollar, reinforcing its role as a durable hedge against global uncertainty.
- Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei fell as Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed, with a stronger yen weighing on Japanese equities amid rising geopolitical tensions.
If you want this tightened further for an Asia Morning Briefing format or made more data-heavy (more metrics, fewer adjectives), say the word.
