Historic Payroll Revision Upends Market Mood as Gold, Bitcoin Retreat
September 9, 2025
Financial markets reversed course Tuesday after the U.S. government unveiled its sharpest-ever payroll benchmark revision, recasting the strength of the labor market.
The preliminary update reduced job growth by 911,000 for the year through March 2025, exposing a major discrepancy in monthly Nonfarm Payrolls figures that guide both Wall Street capital flows and Federal Reserve policy. The data implies employment conditions were far weaker than believed at the time.
Economists said the revelation could have changed the Fed’s approach this year, potentially prompting rate cuts much earlier. With the central bank meeting next week, investors now see a 50 basis-point reduction as a real possibility, compared with the 25 basis-point move previously expected.
Market Rally Quickly Fades
The initial reaction was strong, but enthusiasm cooled within minutes in a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” move:
- Gold futures briefly crossed $3,700 for the first time, with spot prices hitting a record $3,670, before slipping back to $3,679, unchanged on the day.
- Bitcoin (BTC) dropped from just under $113,000 to $111,600, a 1% loss over 24 hours.
- 10-year Treasury yields, which had been on track to break below 4% for the first time since February, instead bounced to 4.07%.
While the revision bolsters the case for monetary easing, traders appear cautious ahead of next week’s Fed decision, unwilling to extend gains until policy direction is confirmed.
