A classic Wall Street seasonal trend may offer some relief to Bitcoin bulls as the year winds down.
Bitcoin (BTC $87,972.47) has faced its toughest fourth quarter since 2022, but the Santa Claus rally — a historical uptick in the S&P 500 during the last five trading days of December and the first two of January — could lift sentiment for BTC and the broader crypto market.
Since 2005, the S&P 500 has risen 15 times during the Santa Claus period and fallen only five, averaging a 0.58% gain, according to The Market Stats. Looking back to the 1950s, the index has gained 77% of the time and has never posted three consecutive declines during this window. Although the S&P 500 dipped in the past two Santa periods, historical trends point to a likely year-end rally.
For bitcoin, the growing correlation with equities — driven in part by institutional adoption via ETFs — makes the Santa rally in stocks increasingly relevant. BTC’s own Santa Claus track record is mixed: strong gains of 33% in 2011 and 46% in 2016 contrast with losses of 14% in 2014 and 10% in 2021, averaging roughly 7.9% returns since 2011.
Gold shines
Gold has consistently outperformed during Santa periods, delivering a cumulative 95% return since 2005, with only 2023 showing a minor negative. The metal recently hit record highs above $4,400 an ounce, hinting at another potentially strong holiday season.
Overall, while gold trades at all-time highs and the S&P 500 is just 1.5% below its peak, bitcoin remains roughly 30% below its all-time high, leaving room for upside if seasonal equity and gold trends translate into renewed crypto momentum.
