Bitcoin Could Fall Another 30% as Bear Market Intensifies, Analyst Says
Bitcoin appears to be entering the most severe stage of its current bear market, and the downturn could deepen further, according to CK Zheng, founder of crypto investment firm ZX Squared Capital.
Zheng believes the world’s largest cryptocurrency may decline by as much as 30% in 2026, pointing to the ongoing conflict involving Iran and the continued influence of bitcoin’s long-observed four-year market cycle.
“Bitcoin’s price is clearly in deep bear market territory,” Zheng said in comments to CoinDesk. “With the Iran war beginning, we expect the price could fall another 30% in 2026.”
Bitcoin has already experienced a steep correction. After reaching an all-time high above $126,000 in October last year, the cryptocurrency has lost nearly half of its value. At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading near $68,000, according to CoinDesk data.
The Importance of the Four-Year Cycle
Many investors in the crypto market track bitcoin’s so-called four-year cycle — a repeating pattern where prices surge, peak, and then decline before eventually recovering. This cycle is closely linked to the bitcoin halving, a programmed event that reduces the reward for mining new blocks roughly every four years.
The most recent halving took place in April 2024, cutting the mining reward to 3.125 BTC per block. When bitcoin first launched, the reward was 50 BTC, but it has gradually declined following four halving events.
Historically, bitcoin tends to reach a market peak around 16 to 18 months after a halving occurs. That high point is usually followed by a bear market phase that lasts roughly a year.
Because bitcoin’s latest record high occurred in October — about 18 months after the April 2024 halving — the current market appears to be following the same pattern once again. If the cycle continues as it has in the past, the downturn may still have further to run.
Psychology Keeps the Pattern Alive
Zheng believes the persistence of the four-year cycle is largely driven by investor behavior.
According to him, retail investors tend to follow predictable patterns — buying during periods of strong optimism and selling when markets begin to decline. This cycle of excitement and panic reinforces the boom-and-bust rhythm that has defined the crypto market for more than a decade.
“The four-year crypto cycle is gaining momentum and is extremely difficult to break because of the psychological behavior of individual investors,” Zheng said.
Because of these dynamics, he argues that bitcoin still trades primarily as a speculative asset rather than as a traditional store of value like gold.
Institutional Influence Still Relatively Small
Although institutional interest in bitcoin has increased in recent years, Zheng believes its overall influence on the market remains limited.
He estimates that crypto exchange-traded funds and companies holding bitcoin as part of their treasury reserves account for only about 10% of the total crypto market.
Zheng also warned that some of these corporate holders may face pressure if the bear market worsens. Companies that financed their bitcoin purchases with debt could be forced to sell assets to meet repayment obligations, potentially adding further downward pressure on prices.
“The combined size of crypto ETFs and digital asset treasury firms represents only about 10% of the entire crypto market,” Zheng said. “Some of these companies could be forced to sell their holdings to service debt during the bear market, which could create a negative feedback loop in prices.”
