Bitcoin’s Surge Faces Headwinds as Options Data and Fed Signals Raise Caution
Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be losing momentum after its impressive rally, with market indicators and Federal Reserve commentary hinting at potential price headwinds. Analysts point to shifting options market trends that resemble setups preceding the recent downturn in Trump Media (DJT) shares.
The implied probability distribution—a metric derived from options prices that reveals trader expectations for future price levels—has tilted toward lower probabilities for bitcoin’s upside, according to BloFin data.
“This leftward shift in implied probabilities suggests that traders increasingly see BTC’s current levels as vulnerable to correction,” said Griffin Ardern, BloFin’s head of options trading. “A similar pattern emerged with DJT options, foreshadowing its sharp drop from $54 to $27 earlier this month.”
Bitcoin surged past $90,000 following Donald Trump’s pro-crypto presidential victory, peaking at $93,000 amid bullish sentiment. However, it has since slipped to $88,100, as profit-taking and caution around macroeconomic signals weigh on the market.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks added to the cooling sentiment. “The economy’s resilience allows us to deliberate carefully, with no immediate need for rate cuts,” Powell said on Thursday. His comments pushed down expectations for a December rate reduction, curbing risk asset enthusiasm.
Despite these short-term hurdles, market optimism remains robust. Traders continue to favor options bets targeting a breakout above $100,000, buoyed by hopes of policy shifts under the Trump administration that could further integrate bitcoin into the U.S. financial system.
“While corrections are part of any rally, the broader trajectory for bitcoin remains upward,” Ardern concluded. “Macro drivers and policy tailwinds still support a long-term bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency.”
