Bitcoin Bulls Face Pressure as Treasury Volatility Spikes
Bitcoin (BTC) has stalled, with long-term holder selling and slowing ETF inflows dampening momentum. A lesser-known but influential factor—the MOVE index—is adding to the headwinds.
The MOVE index, developed by former Merrill Lynch MD Harley Bassman, tracks implied volatility in U.S. Treasuries by analyzing one-month options across 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year maturities. It provides a gauge of market expectations for interest rate movements. Over the past three days, the index surged from 77 to 89, the sharpest jump since April, when global market jitters pushed BTC to $75,000.
Historically, rising Treasury volatility tightens liquidity, increases borrowing costs, and triggers a “flight to safety,” with investors shifting from riskier assets to short-term Treasuries. BTC rallies have generally coincided with declining MOVE levels, making the recent spike a warning for bulls.
If the MOVE index continues climbing, bitcoin may face deeper pullbacks before resuming any upward trajectory.
