As bitcoin remains in a broader downtrend, several technical and onchain levels are emerging as key areas of support.
Bitcoin slid to around $86,000 when CME futures reopened on Sunday following the weekend pause, before recovering modestly. Despite the bounce, the market structure remains firmly bearish.
The initial move lower created a CME gap extending up to roughly $89,265. Such gaps form when bitcoin’s spot price moves while CME futures are closed and, historically, the market has often retraced to fill them.
Bitcoin last set an all-time high on Oct. 6, 111 days ago, and has since fallen roughly 30%, reinforcing the prevailing downward momentum.
A decisive break below $80,000 would likely open the door to a retest of April 2025 lows near $76,000, reached during the selloff tied to President Donald Trump’s tariff push.
For now, the key level underpinning the market is the 100-week moving average, a widely watched long-term support that represents the average closing price over that period. Since the local low near $80,000 on Nov. 21, bitcoin has repeatedly held above this level, which currently sits around $87,145.
Bitcoin has already slipped below its 50-day moving average, just above $90,000, a signal commonly used to assess short-term trend direction.
Below current prices, several additional support zones come into view. The Difficulty Regression Model — an estimate of bitcoin’s average production cost based on mining difficulty — sits near $89,300. In bear markets, prices often gravitate toward or fall below production cost.
Further down, the aggregate cost basis of U.S. spot bitcoin ETF buyers stands at $84,099, a level that has provided support for months. Onchain data also places the average exchange withdrawal price for 2024 buyers at $82,713.
Finally, the True Market Mean Price, calculated as Investor Cap divided by Active Supply, sits just above $80,000, closely aligning with the November low and reinforcing its significance as a potential mean-reversion level.
