A growing divide between large and small Bitcoin holders may indicate that the market’s recent pullback has further to run. Historically, such divergence has often appeared before deeper corrections, while sentiment indicators show investors becoming increasingly cautious. The widely followed Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 12 over the weekend, placing it firmly in “extreme fear” territory.
Data from blockchain analytics firm Santiment shows that large bitcoin holders, commonly referred to as whales, were active buyers during last week’s market panic. Wallets containing between 10 and 10,000 BTC accumulated heavily between Feb. 23 and March 3, a period when bitcoin traded roughly between $62,900 and $69,600.
That accumulation phase coincided with the sharp sell-off tied to geopolitical tensions involving Iran, followed by the initial stages of the market rebound. However, once bitcoin surged to around $74,000 on Thursday, those same large holders began locking in gains. Since then, they have sold roughly 66% of the bitcoin they purchased during the earlier downturn.
Meanwhile, smaller investors have been moving in the opposite direction. Wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC continued to accumulate as bitcoin slipped back below $70,000 late Friday and into Saturday. According to Santiment, this pattern—retail buyers stepping in while whales reduce exposure—has historically served as a warning sign that a market correction may not yet be complete.
Additional on-chain data from analytics firm Glassnode suggests the market still faces structural selling pressure. Roughly 43% of bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently sitting at a loss. As prices rise, many of these investors may use rallies as opportunities to exit positions at or near their cost basis rather than hold through continued volatility.
That dynamic appeared to play out when bitcoin’s rebound stalled near $74,000. The rally encountered heavy selling from both profit-taking whales and holders seeking to break even after weeks or months of losses.
The broader market picture shows significant volatility but limited overall progress. Bitcoin traded near $60,000 on Feb. 6 before climbing to about $74,000 on March 5. Despite those wide swings, the asset is currently hovering near $68,000—roughly the same level it occupied several weeks earlier.
Such price action reflects a market where strong short-term moves fail to translate into sustained momentum. Rallies tend to attract sellers looking to exit positions, while dips encourage retail traders hoping to capture a rebound.
Ultimately, the market may resolve this standoff in one of two ways. Either the selling pressure gradually fades and bitcoin pushes decisively above $74,000, or buying momentum weakens, allowing the market to test key support levels near $60,000.
Recent whale activity suggests that many large holders may be positioning for the latter outcome.
