VanEck’s Matthew Sigel says MARA Holdings (MARA) may appear cheap, but its leverage and capital structure tell a different story.
Over the past six weeks, both Strategy (MSTR) and MARA—the two largest publicly traded bitcoin holders—have dropped roughly 40%. While MSTR’s correction has been widely covered, MARA, down 55% year over year, has drawn attention from investors viewing it as undervalued.
Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, challenges that view. MARA holds $4.9 billion in bitcoin but carries $3.3 billion in convertible debt, leaving roughly $1.6 billion in net bitcoin value before factoring in other mining liabilities. With a $4.7 billion equity market cap, he argues MARA is trading at a premium to its bitcoin holdings, not a discount.
MARA’s short interest currently sits at 27%, but after adjusting for delta hedging tied to convertible notes, true short interest drops to around 15%, a 44% reduction. By contrast, MSTR has $8 billion in convertible debt against a $53 billion market cap, and adjusted short interest falls by only 31%. Sigel characterizes MARA’s short interest as structural, while MSTR’s is more fundamentals-driven.
He notes that over half of MARA’s equity volatility comes from its capital structure rather than bitcoin price movements. Sigel concludes that MSTR provides cleaner bitcoin exposure, whereas MARA’s performance is heavily influenced by its complex, leveraged structure.
