As we enter the final quarter of 2025, traders are turning to key charts for guidance on navigating crypto markets amid mixed signals and macro uncertainty.
Bullish Seasonality for BTC and ETH
Historical patterns favor a strong Q4 for Bitcoin and Ether. Since 2013, Bitcoin has posted an average gain of 85% in the final quarter, with November leading the way (+46%) and October also showing solid gains (+21%), according to Coinglass.
Ether has traditionally been more volatile in Q4, though its strongest historical returns have occurred in Q1. With BTC near $109,418 and ETH at $4,022, traders are weighing seasonal strength against recent short-term weakness.
Bitcoin Support: 50-Week and 200-Day SMAs
Bitcoin has declined 5% this week, testing support near August lows around $107,300. A breach could put the 200-day SMA at $104,200 in focus.
The 50-week SMA, currently at $98,900, has historically acted as a key support level, ending corrective pullbacks in the ongoing bull run that began in early 2023. Market participants will closely watch this level for signs of broader trend stability.
XRP/BTC: Compression Builds Potential Energy
Despite a 32% gain in 2025, XRP remains range-bound against Bitcoin, with the XRP/BTC pair confined to a narrow trading channel since early 2021.
Recent movement near the top of this range suggests bulls are gaining momentum. A breakout could trigger a strong relative rally for XRP, as years of volatility compression release accumulated energy.
SMST ETF: Signals of BTC and MSTR Weakness
The Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF (SMST) hit a five-month high of $35.65, forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, often seen as a bullish reversal for the ETF.
Since SMST moves inversely to MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock — which holds 639,835 BTC — the pattern implies potential downside risk for both MSTR and Bitcoin if the ETF continues to gain.
Dollar Index: Watching the Double Bottom
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has formed a double bottom near 96.30. A move above 100.26 would confirm the breakout, with upside toward 104.00 possible.
However, failure below 96.00 could encourage risk-taking in markets, including crypto, making this a key level to monitor.
Nvidia: Risk Appetite Barometer
Nvidia (NVDA), a bellwether for risk assets, continues to test the upper trendline of a broadening channel traced from mid-2024. The rally has stalled since late July, hinting at potential bullish exhaustion.
A reversal here could signal a broader risk-off phase, likely impacting cryptocurrencies as investors reassess exposure to risk assets.
