Bitcoin Holds Key Support as Traders Brace for Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech
Bitcoin (BTC) held firm at $112,500 overnight, aligning with the critical 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its April-to-July rally. Despite this technical support, the rebound has remained subdued, with traders adopting a cautious stance ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday.
Markets are currently pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with expectations for an additional cut before the end of the year. A more dovish tone from Powell could reignite upside momentum for bitcoin and potentially other major digital assets.
Volatility Expectations Rise Ahead of Fed Remarks
Options markets are predicting a ±2% price move for BTC around the event, suggesting moderate short-term volatility. Pulkit Goyal, head of trading at Orbit Markets, noted that traders are leaning slightly bearish, as reflected in the options skew.
“If Powell adopts a more balanced tone instead of dovish guidance, we could see a pullback,” Goyal told CoinDesk. The 25-delta risk reversals currently favor puts over calls, showing growing demand for downside protection.
Ethereum in Focus, Derivatives Market Signals Mixed Sentiment
Ether (ETH) is hovering above its ascending trendline formed since April, positioning it for a potential breakout if macro conditions turn supportive. Futures open interest (OI) for BTC and ETH rose 1% over the past day — a sign of increasing hedging or speculative activity ahead of Powell’s remarks.
In contrast, altcoins like SOL, DOGE, LINK, XRP, and ADA saw declining OI, reflecting capital outflows. However, OI rose significantly in less-followed tokens such as MAT, ULTIMA, and LUMIA, suggesting risk rotation.
Speculative activity has cooled broadly, with non-BTC token volumes falling over 20%. Traders appear to be sitting on the sidelines until Powell provides clearer policy guidance.
Options Market Heating Up
On the CME, ETH futures OI remains elevated near 2 million ETH, while BTC futures lag below July’s levels. However, options activity is rising: ETH options OI hit $1 billion, the highest this year, and BTC options surged to $4.44 billion, the most since May.
Options listed on Deribit are pricing in a 2% swing over the next 24 hours — slightly above the 30-day average of 1.18%. BTC puts continue to trade at a premium to calls, and similar sentiment is seen in Nasdaq-linked ETFs.
OTC activity on Paradigm included outright call purchases, put spreads, and risk reversals — indicating mixed positioning.
On-Chain Probe Reveals Insider Trading in YZY, LIBRA Tokens
Blockchain investigator Dethective uncovered apparent insider trading during the launches of YZY and LIBRA, where wallets linked to early access extracted over $23 million in profits.
One wallet acquired $250K of YZY at $0.20 — well below the public price — and cashed out $1 million in eight minutes. The funds were later moved to a “treasury wallet” also connected to earlier LIBRA gains, where similar behavior netted profits of $9 million and $11.5 million.
These wallets were active only during the token launches and displayed behaviors Dethective said are “impossible without privileged access.”
While speculation ties these wallets to LIBRA founder Hayden Davis, no conclusive evidence has emerged. Analysts warn that “celebrity coins” may be structured primarily for insider profit extraction at retail investors’ expense.
A study by Defioasis found that over 60% of YZY traders lost money. Of 56,050 participating wallets, most that bought but never sold were likely bots or retail users. Just 406 wallets made over $10,000, while five wallets cleared over $1 million — all linked to insider trades. One unlucky trader reportedly lost over $1 million in a single day.
Ripple and SBI to Launch RLUSD Stablecoin in Japan
Ripple and SBI Holdings announced plans to introduce RLUSD, a U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin, to the Japanese market by Q1 2026. The initiative will operate under Japan’s newly updated digital asset regulations and be distributed via SBI VC Trade, a licensed payments platform.
Launched in December 2024, RLUSD is backed by U.S. dollar deposits, short-term Treasuries, and cash equivalents, with monthly third-party attestations. Ripple emphasizes RLUSD’s regulatory compliance and institutional-grade backing.
SBI CEO Tomohiko Kondo said the stablecoin will expand options for Japanese users and help “build trust in digital finance.” Ripple positioned RLUSD as a bridge between traditional and decentralized systems.
The announcement comes just days after Japan approved its first yen-backed stablecoin, signaling accelerating institutional and regulatory acceptance of digital assets in Asia.
