Crypto Markets Eye Fed Pivot as Token Unlocks and Liquidity Tests Loom – 17/9/2025
The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to kick off its easing cycle tomorrow with a 25-basis-point rate cut already priced in. However, according to OKX Singapore CEO Gracie Lin, upcoming token unlocks and liquidity shocks will put markets to the test, and only crypto with resilient liquidity will emerge as winners.
Polymarket and CME FedWatch show strong alignment: both forecast a 25 bps cut for the next FOMC meeting, while probabilities are building for three additional cuts through the end of 2025. Polymarket traders are leaving room for more aggressive easing, while CME data favors steady 25 bps steps. Either way, markets anticipate a total of roughly 75 bps in cuts as a baseline for the year.
The market’s conviction around the Fed pivot is already visible on-chain. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $116,762, up 1.3% on the day and 4.7% on the week. Ethereum (ETH) sits at $4,502, rising 4.3% on the week, as traders factor in the expected monetary easing. Some investors, however, are sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see how markets respond to the Fed’s announcement.
Exchange Flows Highlight Reduced Sell Pressure
Data from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin exchange inflows have dropped to a seven-day average of just 25,000 BTC—the lowest in over 18 months. This mirrors mid-July levels, when BTC first crossed $120,000. The average BTC deposit size has halved to 0.57 BTC, suggesting large holders are remaining inactive rather than selling.
Ethereum shows a similar pattern. Exchange inflows have fallen to a two-month low of 783,000 ETH, down sharply from 1.8 million in August. Average deposit sizes have declined to 30 ETH from 40–45 ETH earlier this summer, signaling subdued sell-side activity among whales.
Meanwhile, stablecoins are increasingly flowing onto exchanges. USDT deposits surged to $379 million at the end of August—the highest of the year—and remain elevated around $200 million. Average daily USDT deposits have doubled since July, providing exchanges with the “dry powder” needed to support a post-Fed rally.
However, flows are not uniform across the market. Altcoins are seeing a resurgence of exchange activity, with transaction deposits rising to a seven-day total of 55,000, up from a range of 20,000–30,000 earlier this year. This divergence suggests potential profit-taking in higher-beta tokens, even as BTC and ETH supply remains tight.
Token Unlocks Could Pressure Liquidity
September brings $4.5 billion in token unlocks, a dynamic that could test market absorption, Lin noted in a report to CoinDesk. She emphasized that true opportunities lie beyond short-term volatility:
“Stablecoins are nearing $300 billion in supply, token unlocks are putting market depth to the test, and major infrastructure upgrades like Nasdaq’s move toward tokenized securities signal that crypto is becoming part of the global financial system, not an outlier.”
The takeaway: the Fed pivot is largely priced in. The next challenge is whether crypto’s liquidity buffers, stablecoin supply, exchange inflows, and upcoming token unlocks can absorb shocks and channel capital into the next leg higher for BTC.
Market Snapshot
- BTC: Trading above $116,500, buoyed by optimism over potential U.S. interest rate cuts and technical factors such as closing futures gaps. Some caution is emerging ahead of the Fed meeting.
- ETH: Showing modest strength, supported by BTC-driven market momentum, though resistance remains as investors weigh macro risks and Fed policy.
- Gold: Reaching record highs, driven by anticipated rate cuts, a weaker U.S. dollar, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal.
