Polymarket’s Predictive Power: Study Shows 90% Accuracy in Forecasting Events
A new analysis confirms that Polymarket has a 90% success rate in predicting events one month in advance, with accuracy surging to 94% just hours before an event takes place.
The study, conducted by New York-based data scientist Alex McCullough, was compiled on a Dune dashboard and analyzed Polymarket’s past predictions. To maintain objectivity, McCullough removed markets where probabilities had already settled above 90% or below 10% before official confirmation, ensuring that the accuracy results weren’t artificially inflated.
What Makes Polymarket So Effective?
Polymarket’s success stems from the collective intelligence of its participants, who incorporate real-time information into their bets. However, McCullough’s research found that the platform tends to slightly overestimate probabilities, possibly due to trader biases, including herd mentality, risk-seeking behavior, and liquidity constraints.
Long-term predictions appear more accurate, but this is partly because they often include highly unlikely outcomes that are easy to rule out. McCullough highlighted a $54 million trading market on Gavin Newsom’s presidential chances, where Newsom’s loss was a near certainty. These kinds of outcomes boost Polymarket’s overall accuracy in long-term forecasting.
Sports Markets Offer Real-Time Proof of Accuracy
While political and financial markets show strong predictive power, sports betting offers the clearest test of Polymarket’s accuracy. Unlike long-term election markets, sports matchups involve fewer extreme outliers, making them a purer gauge of forecasting ability.
McCullough’s findings indicate that Polymarket’s accuracy improves significantly as events unfold, with the sharpest increases in precision occurring within the final hours before resolution.
Sports betting has become a key driver of Polymarket’s growth, with over $4.5 billion in wagers placed on the NBA, MLB, Champions League, and Premier League, according to Polymarket Analytics.
Polymarket’s Political Forecasts Gain Attention in Canada
Beyond sports and global events, Polymarket’s political predictions are drawing attention in Canada, where the platform currently shows Mark Carney, the new leader of the Liberal Party, with a stronger lead over Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre than traditional polls suggest. If Polymarket’s track record holds, its forecasts could serve as a valuable alternative to conventional polling methods.
