Polymarket Sparks Controversy Over $160M Bet on Zelensky’s NATO Attire, Raising Questions About UMA Governance
Crypto prediction platform Polymarket is under intense scrutiny this week as a heated dispute unfolds over a market betting on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wore a suit before July.
Over $160 million in crypto has been wagered on the outcome, which initially leaned toward a “yes” result. However, that decision has been challenged by validators from UMA, the oracle protocol responsible for settling Polymarket markets.
Following the dispute, the price of the “yes” outcome has plunged from $0.19 to just $0.04, signaling a mere 4% chance of success. Supporters of the “yes” side argue that Zelenskyy did wear a suit at the NATO summit on June 24, and some suspect UMA validators might be manipulating the result for personal gain.
UMA’s validation system relies on token holders voting on real-world data accuracy. Critics warn that a coordinated group of large token holders could sway outcomes, sparking concerns about the protocol’s fairness and decentralization.
This isn’t the first clash between Polymarket and UMA communities. In March, a separate market related to Ukraine also sparked allegations of manipulation by significant UMA stakeholders.
“We all know the whales are trying to rig the UMA vote on the Zelensky suit market,” wrote X user Atlantislq. “But that doesn’t mean we should stay silent. This is a critical moment—Polymarket claims to care about truth and decentralization, so let’s hold them to it.”
Adding an unexpected twist, AI chatbot Grok weighed in, supporting the “yes” camp and asserting that “Zelenskyy wore a suit in June 2025.”
Meanwhile, menswear influencer and writer “derek guy” has wagered $3.6 million on the market resolving as “no,” potentially earning a $72,000 profit if his bet is correct.
A final resolution on the market’s outcome is expected at midnight UTC on July 8.
