Speculation about Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation is heating up after reports from two of the country’s largest newspapers, but Polymarket bettors are not convinced it will happen as soon as some suggest.
While discussions around Trudeau’s possible departure have circulated for months, two high-volume contracts on Polymarket have sparked fresh interest. These contracts question whether he will resign by February or April, with another from December asking whether opposition parties will call for an election by spring.
The latest round of speculation began on Monday after the Toronto Star and Globe and Mail published dueling reports suggesting Trudeau could announce his resignation either on Monday or before the Liberal Party’s caucus meeting on Wednesday. The Toronto Star reported that his departure could be as soon as Monday, while the Globe and Mail, which was first to break the news, suggested it could occur before Wednesday’s meeting.
Despite these reports, Polymarket bettors are more cautious. A contract predicting that Trudeau will resign by Monday has just over $45,000 in volume but places the chance at only 24%. Another contract, asking if he will step down by Wednesday, has a 72% chance, but it has a much smaller volume of around $10,000. A third contract, speculating that he will resign by Friday, shows an 80% probability.
Though both the Toronto Star and Globe and Mail point to sources suggesting that a resignation is imminent, Reuters, citing a different source, reports that Trudeau has not yet made a final decision on his future.
Recent polling data paints a challenging picture for Trudeau, with a 22% approval rating according to Angus Reid. If an election were held today, polling aggregators predict Trudeau’s Liberal Party would be severely weakened, winning only 46 seats, while the Conservatives would secure 225 seats, giving them a strong majority in Canada’s Parliament.
In a lighter note, Polymarket bettors are also predicting a 3% chance that Canada could join the United States as its 51st state by July. This idea, once a joke from President-elect Donald Trump’s social media, has gained some traction among speculative traders.
