Powell Seen Finishing Term as Trump Targets Cook, Reviving Fed Independence Debate
Prediction markets are skeptical that Donald Trump can unseat Jerome Powell before his May 2026 term ends. Polymarket pricing puts the odds of Powell’s removal at just 10% this year.
Governor Lisa Cook’s position looks less certain. Trump accused her of mortgage fraud in a Truth Social post and moved to fire her — a first for a sitting governor. Cook has refused to leave, arguing dismissal “for cause” must relate to conduct in office. Traders assign a 27% probability she is gone by year-end.
The dispute underscores how fragile Fed independence can be. Past presidents from Truman to Nixon leaned on the central bank, often with political aims. A Cato Institute study concluded that interference has been bipartisan and frequent.
Markets would view Powell’s removal as a potential policy shift. Easier rates and a weaker dollar could boost risk assets, particularly bitcoin, while reinforcing its “hard money” narrative against fiat’s political vulnerabilities.
Still, crypto markets barely reacted. Bitcoin (BTC $109,769.34) gained just 0.3% before falling back 2.6% on the day, while the CoinDesk 20 dropped 5.3% below 4,000.
