Crypto Markets Eye September CPI; Ether Expected to Outperform Bitcoin in Volatility
Traders are bracing for September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Friday, the first major U.S. economic data point following the government shutdown. FactSet forecasts a 3.1% year-over-year increase, the highest in 18 months, up from 2.9% in August, with a monthly rise of 0.4%, matching the previous month.
Core Inflation and Fed Outlook
Excluding food and energy, core CPI is projected to rise 3.1% YoY for the third consecutive month, with a 0.3% monthly gain. Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to proceed with a 25 basis point rate cut next week, regardless of the print.
A hotter-than-expected CPI could strengthen the U.S. dollar, potentially limiting crypto gains, while a softer reading may spark a risk-on reaction, according to Zerocap.
Expected Crypto Moves
Options markets suggest Ether (ETH) could swing ±2.9%, outpacing Bitcoin’s (BTC) ±1.4%. Implied volatility for XRP and Solana points to expected 24-hour moves of 4.7% and 4%, respectively. These projections reflect potential swings but do not indicate bullish or bearish bias.
Technical Signals
Bitcoin shows early bullish stochastic divergence, signaling easing downside momentum and a potential short-term recovery, according to Markus Thielen of 10x Research.
The CPI release is likely to drive heightened volatility across crypto, with high-beta altcoins like ETH expected to move more sharply than BTC.
