Retail Sentiment Dips, But Crypto Shows Signs of Short-Term Bottom
14/11/2025
Crypto markets are under pressure as retail sentiment sours, yet on-chain and institutional data suggest conditions may be setting the stage for a short-term rebound.
Social indicators show growing pessimism around major tokens, according to Santiment. Traders have turned increasingly defensive as prices drift lower—a pattern that historically appears near market inflection points rather than at the start of new downtrends.
“Bitcoin has fallen below $100K for the second time this month, triggering a wave of FUD and social media anxiety among retail participants,” Santiment noted. “Sentiment readings now show Bitcoin’s bullish-to-bearish ratio unusually flat, Ethereum skewing only slightly positive, and XRP at one of its most fear-heavy readings of the year.”
On-chain data supports a potential bottom. Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit (NUP) ratio dropped to 0.476, a level that has previously signaled short-term market lows and preceded double-digit price rebounds in 2024.
The broader market remains under pressure, with total crypto capitalization falling toward $3.47 trillion, continuing a month-long downtrend. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich observed that short-term bottoming attempts are visible, but rallies are still being met with selling, reflecting a medium-term correction rather than a structural break.
Bitcoin’s recent decline toward $98,000 triggered realized losses for wallets that bought near $110,000. Yet newer entrants are absorbing these flows, and institutional positioning remains cautiously bullish. According to Sygnum, 61% of institutions plan to increase crypto exposure ahead of anticipated altcoin ETF launches and regulatory developments in 2026.
Strategic accumulation is also underway. Strategy, one of the largest public Bitcoin holders, added 487 BTC last week at an average of $102,557, bringing total holdings to 641,692 BTC. Ethereum exchange reserves are at their lowest since May 2024, signaling medium-term accumulation rather than distribution.
Despite waning retail enthusiasm, negative sentiment, concentrated liquidation clusters, declining exchange balances, and steady institutional buying suggest the market may be poised for a reflexive rebound. Historically, these conditions have led to short, sharp reversals rather than prolonged capitulation.
While retail traders retreat, larger players appear to be positioning for the next upward move, indicating a potential short-term bottom may be forming across the crypto market.
