Bitcoin’s 180-Day Call-Put Skew Signals Bearish Shift Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Address
Bitcoin (BTC) market indicators are pointing toward a growing bearish sentiment as investors await Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
A key metric, the 180-day call-put skew on Deribit—the largest crypto options exchange by volume and open interest—has turned negative, reaching -0.42, its lowest point since June 2023, according to Amberdata. This negative skew indicates traders are favoring put options, which protect against price drops, over calls, signaling heightened caution and a potential shift to a bearish market outlook over the medium term.
Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insights, noted on social media, “BTC longer dated skew flipping into put premium could be a sign of regime shift.”
This marks a reversal after two years of predominantly positive skew values that reflected bullish bias. Interestingly, Bitcoin has only pulled back about 8% from its all-time highs above $124,000, yet long-term sentiment has already turned bearish.
Lakha added that this recent price dip has sparked increased demand for put options:
“BTC and ETH skews are pulling toward put premium as markets correct. BTC doesn’t show a call premium again until March 2026. The move lower triggered buying of August/September puts around the $110,000 strike. Calls and call spreads are being sold as longs de-risk into Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.”
Market Expectations Ahead of Powell’s Speech
Powell is expected to speak at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Most traders anticipate he will signal the start of interest rate cuts in September.
Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard commented, “The market broadly expects cuts, so much of that is already priced in. If Powell delivers as expected, crypto may trade sideways or slightly lower in a classic ‘sell the news’ reaction. However, if the Fed signals deeper or faster cuts, it could reignite risk appetite and fuel the next crypto rally.”
Wall Street’s Defensive Moves
The cautious mood extends beyond crypto, with Wall Street investors also buying puts as a hedge against potential declines in major tech stocks.
Jeff Jacobson, head of derivative strategy at 22V Research Group, told Bloomberg, “Traders are buying ‘disaster’ puts on the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100.”
Technical Indicators Point to Increasing Downside Risk
The Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) indicator, developed to detect trend shifts by comparing short- and long-term moving averages, also signals bearish momentum. Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the GMMA bands, a sign of weakening bullish control and potential for further downside.
Additional indicators such as the MACD histogram align with this bearish outlook, showing strengthening downward momentum.
Overall, Bitcoin’s options market and technical signals highlight rising caution as traders brace for a pivotal Fed speech that could define the next phase of the crypto market.
