Bitcoin Set for Rally to $135K as ETF Flows and Macro Risks Drive Momentum
Bitcoin (BTC) surged about 13% this week, reaching $124,951 on Friday and approaching its previous record near $124,500. Standard Chartered analysts see the potential for a near-term move to $135,000, with a year-end target of $200,000.
ETF Flows Could Fuel the Rally
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, highlighted that ETF investors may be rotating capital from gold into Bitcoin. While gold ETFs recently outperformed, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are poised to accelerate. Of the $58 billion in net BTC ETF inflows, $23 billion has occurred in 2025 alone, including over $2.25 billion this week (excluding Friday). Kendrick anticipates another $20 billion in ETF inflows before year-end, supporting the $200,000 target.
Macro Risk Adds Bullish Pressure
Kendrick noted that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown is affecting markets more than previous shutdowns. Unlike the 2018–2019 episode, BTC is now closely correlated with U.S. government risk, measured by Treasury term premiums. This relationship suggests the current uncertainty is acting as a bullish driver.
Prediction markets on Polymarket indicate a 60% chance that the shutdown lasts 10–29 days, a period during which Kendrick expects Bitcoin to maintain upward momentum.
Technical Outlook
With BTC approaching prior all-time highs, a short-term target of $135,000 is attainable. Combined with ETF inflows and macro-driven market factors, Bitcoin’s momentum could carry it toward the $200,000 year-end forecast.
