MicroStrategy Sinks Below 200-Day Moving Average as Underperformance Against Bitcoin Widens
MicroStrategy (MSTR) fell to $326 on Wednesday, breaking below its 200-day moving average of $340 for the first time in five months—a key technical level that had previously acted as strong support during market corrections.
The 200-DMA is a widely observed indicator used to gauge long-term momentum. A decisive break below it often signals a potential trend reversal or deepening weakness, especially when accompanied by broader market underperformance.
MSTR’s slide comes despite bitcoin holding relatively steady. While BTC has slipped just 3.5% over the past month, MicroStrategy shares have plunged 21% in the same period, suggesting investor confidence in the company’s bitcoin-linked equity thesis is weakening.
Historically, the 200-DMA has acted as a turning point for MSTR. During the “Trump tariff tantrum” in April 2025, the stock rebounded after touching the line. A similar bounce occurred in mid-2024. Whether that dynamic plays out again will likely hinge on both bitcoin price action and risk sentiment across equity markets.
Short Sellers in Control as Chanos Trade Pays Off
Famed short-seller Jim Chanos has been vocal in his bearish stance on MicroStrategy, recently revealing a position shorting MSTR while going long bitcoin—a play betting on the stock’s underperformance relative to the crypto asset.
The strategy is proving profitable. According to market technician J.C. Parets, the ratio between MSTR and BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) hit a five-month low this week, indicating accelerating relative weakness. “This one is accelerating quickly,” Parets noted, pointing to a breakdown in the correlation that previously supported MicroStrategy’s premium valuation.
If bitcoin remains stable while MSTR continues to lose ground, it could reinforce the idea that MicroStrategy’s high-beta relationship with BTC is beginning to unravel under the weight of market scrutiny and investor fatigue.
