Bitcoin’s Volatility Indicator Flashes Bullish — Is a Big Move Coming?
A technical signal that has historically preceded major Bitcoin rallies is flashing once again, raising speculation that the next significant price move could be just around the corner.
At the heart of this signal is the Bollinger Band spread — the distance between the upper and lower bands plotted two standard deviations from Bitcoin’s 20-week moving average. When this gap widens, it reflects growing market volatility. When it contracts, the market is often quieter and less directional.
To add another layer, analysts have been watching the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) applied specifically to this Bollinger spread. When the MACD histogram turns positive, it typically signals a shift toward greater volatility — and often, that has coincided with bullish breakouts.
That’s what just happened.
The spread’s MACD has flipped above zero, hinting that volatility is on the rise again. While volatility itself isn’t inherently bullish or bearish, past occurrences of this signal have aligned with key rallies — including Bitcoin’s sharp climbs in late 2020 and late 2024.
The technical setup shows:
- Bitcoin’s weekly candles remain within a tight band,
- The Bollinger spread is beginning to widen,
- The MACD on the spread has crossed into positive territory.
These are early signs, but for chart watchers and momentum traders, it could mean the calm is ending, and a new wave of activity is approaching. The big question: Will Bitcoin surge again as it did in past cycles, or is this signal a false alarm?
Either way, traders are watching closely — and preparing for what could be the next big move.
