Historical trends linked to Bitcoin’s 200-week simple moving average (SMA) suggest that the ongoing price range between $90,000 and $110,000 is likely to break out bullishly, despite inflationary pressures in the U.S. that may challenge the current market momentum.
As of the latest data, Bitcoin’s 200-week SMA stands at $44,200, marking its highest level ever, according to TradingView. Although this is still far below the $69,000 peak from November 2021, historical patterns indicate that bull markets often end with the 200-week SMA rising to the levels seen at the previous market highs.
For example, in late 2021, the 200-week SMA rose to $19,000, closely aligning with the peak of the 2017 bull run. Similarly, the 2017 market cycle ended with the 200-week SMA at $1,200, matching the previous record set in 2013. If this trend continues, the current range between $90,000 and $110,000 could resolve bullishly, leading to a fresh upward move.
This bullish outlook is further supported by data from options markets. According to Amberdata, longer-term call options are trading at a premium compared to put options, signaling expectations for higher prices. Furthermore, open interest in call options with strike prices above Bitcoin’s current market value of $96,700, such as the $120,000 strike, is concentrated, reflecting strong bullish sentiment with over $1.8 billion in open interest for the $120,000 strike alone.
