MicroStrategy’s Cycle Top Aligned With IBIT Options Breakthrough
The launch of options tied to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) on Nov. 19 drew explosive demand, with trading volumes surpassing $2 billion on the first day alone. The milestone underscored a new phase in the competition between equity-based and ETF-driven bitcoin exposure.
Just one day later, MicroStrategy (MSTR) reached its own valuation peak. The firm’s multiple to net asset value (mNAV)—a measure of its enterprise value against its bitcoin holdings—climbed to 3.141 on Nov. 20. The timing coincided with bitcoin’s approach toward $100,000 and MSTR shares hitting a record $540.
That peak proved short-lived. Since then, MSTR has fallen by around 40%, with its mNAV contracting to 1.55. At the height of the cycle, the company held 331,200 BTC—an increase of more than 305,000 coins compared to earlier levels.
For years, MicroStrategy has served as a distinctive vehicle for bitcoin exposure, blending corporate equity with direct crypto holdings. Traders have often used it as a high-beta alternative to bitcoin itself, particularly for leveraged positions and options strategies. By contrast, IBIT offers straightforward access to spot bitcoin, giving investors a cleaner, less volatile product.
Still, MicroStrategy has outperformed since the arrival of spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. Shares are up more than 515%, compared with IBIT’s 128% gain. MSTR also continues to dominate on measures such as liquidity and price volatility, reinforcing its role as a favored trading proxy.
At present, bitcoin’s implied volatility remains below 40, a relatively calm backdrop for the asset. Such low volatility reduces the appeal of leveraged plays, meaning MSTR’s momentum may not reignite until price swings intensify.
