A contract tied to military action against a sovereign state now ranks among the most actively traded markets in the history of Polymarket, sitting alongside major U.S. presidential election wagers in terms of volume.
Within hours of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the platform evolved into a real-time war forecasting hub.
Since Saturday’s attacks, traders have poured into newly launched markets covering ceasefire timelines, regime stability and leadership succession. The speed at which these contracts appeared — and the precision of the questions — stands out. Participants are not only betting on escalation, but also pricing the exact week hostilities might end, whether U.S. ground troops will enter Iran by March 7, and who could replace Ali Khamenei.
The largest completed contract so far, “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?”, resolved at 100% after Iranian state television confirmed his death. The market generated $45 million in trading volume, placing it among the most heavily traded geopolitical contracts of the week. The top-performing account, “Curseaaaaaaa,” reportedly earned about $757,000 on a “yes” position, while four additional traders booked six-figure profits.
For weeks, that contract traded between 25% and 50% as tensions simmered. Once confirmation arrived, the implied probability spiked straight to 100%.
Even more significant is the ongoing “US strikes Iran by…?” market, active since December 22. It has accumulated $529 million in volume, making it one of the largest single markets ever hosted on the platform. It now dominates Polymarket’s “World” and “Geopolitics” categories and ranks fourth overall in “Politics,” trailing only high-profile contracts related to the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle.
The February 28 strike date alone accounted for $89.6 million in trades. Each daily contract from February 28 through early March ultimately resolved to “yes,” rewarding traders who correctly anticipated the specific day of U.S. military action. Resolution rules were narrowly defined: qualifying strikes had to involve U.S. drones, missiles or airpower hitting Iranian territory, excluding cyber operations, interceptions or ground maneuvers.
With the strikes completed, attention has shifted to next steps.
Odds of a U.S.–Iran ceasefire by March 2 are priced at just 4%, rising to 15% by March 6. However, probabilities increase sharply to 61% by March 31 and 78% by April 30, indicating expectations for a resolution within weeks rather than months — a narrative echoed in bitcoin’s rebound to $68,000.
The “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” contract now trades at 54%, up markedly from the low-20% range where it hovered for months. In the “Next Supreme Leader of Iran” market, “position abolished” carries a 30% probability, signaling that traders see a meaningful chance the theocratic structure itself could be dismantled. Among named contenders, former parliament speaker Ali Larijani leads at 21%.
Contracts tied to direct U.S. military involvement are also seeing activity. “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” trades at 19% with $207,000 in volume, while “US forces enter Iran by March 7” is priced at 28% with roughly $2 million traded.
Unlike traditional financial markets, which pause over weekends, Polymarket operates continuously. While oil and equity futures remain closed until Sunday evening, users with crypto wallets can take positions instantly and watch probabilities update in real time as new information emerges.
Some of the most controversial trading appears to have taken place before the strikes were publicly known.
Onchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six wallets that collectively earned $1.2 million by wagering on a U.S. strike by February 28 — the precise day the attacks occurred. Several wallets were funded within 24 hours of the operation, focused narrowly on the February 28 contract rather than broader timeframes, and accumulated “yes” shares shortly before the strikes began. One wallet reportedly turned about $61,000 into more than $493,000, while another generated roughly $120,000 from a $30,000 position.
Amid scrutiny, Polymarket added a statement to its Middle East markets emphasizing that prediction markets aim to harness collective intelligence to generate accurate, unbiased forecasts on consequential events. The platform said conversations with people directly affected by the conflict reinforced its view that real-time market pricing can provide insights traditional media coverage may not.
It has also launched a dedicated hub for Iran-focused markets, reflecting the surge in trading tied to the unfolding crisis.
