Bitcoin Soars 550% Since FTX Crash, Analysts Forecast $1M by Year-End
Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a remarkable 550% increase from its low following the FTX collapse, which brought Bitcoin’s price down to around $15,500 in November 2022. At the time, the market was engulfed in fear, and many believed a recovery was far from possible.
Now, just over two years later, Bitcoin is trading above $100,000, supported by growing optimism and the expectations of a more crypto-friendly U.S. administration under President Donald Trump, though he has yet to introduce specific cryptocurrency policies.
Bitcoin’s Halving Cycle Continues to Drive Price Growth
A key factor behind Bitcoin’s recovery is its four-year halving cycle, a program that reduces the supply of Bitcoin every four years. Historically, Bitcoin experiences significant price increases in the year following a halving, and this cycle appears to be following similar trends to past ones.
Bitcoin is up 550% from its cycle low following the FTX collapse (marked by the black line on the chart). In comparison, between the 2015 to 2018 cycle (shown by the blue line), Bitcoin also saw a similar increase in price from its cycle low, which occurred on January 14, 2015.
Price Forecasts and Historical Comparisons
According to Glassnode data, which records the daily closing price at 00:00 UTC, Bitcoin was up 1,300% at this point during the 2018 to 2022 cycle (illustrated by the green line), more than double the current gain of 550%.
If Bitcoin continues to mirror the performance of the 2015 to 2018 cycle, it could increase by another 1,100% by the end of Q1 2025, reaching $186,000 per Bitcoin. The cycle peak is expected to occur around October 2025, possibly driving Bitcoin’s price to an incredible $1.7 million, representing an 11,000% rise from the cycle low.
Bitcoin’s Surge During U.S. Presidential Terms
Bitcoin’s performance has often been tied to the U.S. presidential cycle. Bitcoin Archive on X pointed out that Bitcoin surged 20x during Trump’s first term as president. If Bitcoin follows a similar path, a 10x return from its current price could push Bitcoin to around $1 million by the end of this year.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s spectacular recovery from the FTX collapse, coupled with its historical four-year cycle and the potential for a more crypto-friendly U.S. administration, suggests Bitcoin could continue its upward trajectory. The possibility of reaching $1 million by year-end remains a real prospect for Bitcoin, supported by its proven cycle trends and growing institutional interest.
