Weak conditions across digital-asset markets weighed on Coinbase’s fourth-quarter performance, but analysts at JPMorgan Chase said they continue to support the company’s strategy of investing through downturns and returning capital via share buybacks.
Wall Street firms including JPMorgan Chase and Canaccord Genuity lowered their price targets on Coinbase after the largest publicly traded crypto exchange missed fourth-quarter earnings expectations.
JPMorgan cited softer crypto prices and reduced trading activity as key drags on transaction volumes and fee revenue. While maintaining its overweight rating, the bank trimmed its price target to $252 from $290 in a Thursday note.
Coinbase shares, down roughly 40% year-to-date, were trading near $150 in pre-market action at the time of writing, after closing at $141.09 in the previous session.
Crypto-related stocks have started the year on uneven footing, largely mirroring volatility in digital assets. Major players such as Coinbase have come under pressure as trading volumes decline and token prices retreat. Bitcoin, recently trading around $69,162, remains well below its late-2025 highs and is down about 25% so far this year.
JPMorgan analysts led by Kenneth Worthington pointed to a 22% year-over-year rise in operating expenses and a product mix shift toward lower-fee offerings such as Advanced Trading and Coinbase One subscriptions as additional headwinds. The team also reduced forward take-rate assumptions — the share of transaction volume retained as revenue — citing a weaker outlook for trading volumes and overall market capitalization.
Despite the near-term challenges, Canaccord reiterated its buy rating on Coinbase, though it cut its price target to $300 from $400 after revising down short-term estimates. The broker said Coinbase’s scale and consistent profitability differentiate it in a volatile market, adding that the company continues to gain incremental market share as it broadens its product lineup.
Analysts led by Joseph Vafi highlighted progress on the firm’s “Everything Exchange” strategy, expanding commerce use cases for USD Coin, and growing decentralized finance activity on Base and Ethereum.
The acquisition of Deribit was described as a strategic move aimed at boosting cross-selling opportunities outside the U.S. across both spot and derivatives trading.
According to Canaccord, Coinbase’s global trading volumes and market share have roughly doubled compared with a year earlier, with recent records in notional activity supported in part by trading in gold and silver futures.
Looking ahead, the broker expects a more challenging first quarter for the broader industry but sees Coinbase continuing to capture market share and accelerate stock repurchases. It views the shares as trading near cyclical lows, with its new $300 target based on 22 times projected 2027 EBITDA.
