Bitcoin is closing in on its record high of $123,000, but analysts are keeping a close eye on a potential headwind: a CME futures gap that opened over the weekend around the $119,000 mark.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) bitcoin futures — which track the spot price but do not trade 24/7 — closed at $117,430 on Friday and reopened at $119,000 on Monday, leaving behind a nearly $1,600 price gap. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a strong tendency to “fill” such gaps, meaning prices often retrace to revisit the untraded range before resuming their trend.
“Most prior gaps closed within the same day, but this one has extended further than usual,” said crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades on X.
CME futures are inactive during weekends and pause one hour daily, making them vulnerable to pricing gaps during off-hours volatility — something spot markets, which operate continuously, do not experience.
As of Monday morning, BTC trades at $120,321, putting it within striking distance of its previous peak. However, Daan noted that Bitcoin is nearing price discovery, a phase where the asset enters uncharted territory beyond historical highs. In this environment, CME gaps can turn into “runaway gaps,” where momentum drives prices higher without any short-term pullback.
“This gap could act as a reversal zone if price comes back to fill it,” Daan added. “But I wouldn’t count on that unless Bitcoin drops below $120,000 again.”
Heading into the U.S. session, markets are watching closely: will the gap trigger a pullback, or will Bitcoin break into new highs, leaving the gap unfilled — at least for now?
