XRP Oversold, Needs $1.96 to Reverse Downtrend
Market Overview
XRP faced heavy selling pressure after whale wallets offloaded nearly 200 million tokens (~$400M) over 48 hours, triggering acute supply stress. Broader market weakness amplified the move, with Bitcoin dipping below $90,000, dragging altcoins into deeper volatility.
Institutional interest, however, remains strong. Bitwise’s new XRP ETF posted $25.7M in first-day volume and has $107.6M in AUM, signaling continued demand. Despite this, overall crypto sentiment remains fragile as market outflows persist.
Price Action Summary
- XRP dropped from $1.96 to $1.91, marking its lowest close in three sessions.
- Volume surged 67% above average to 182.1M, confirming active institutional selling.
- A descending channel dominated most of the session, with 5.1% intraday volatility.
- A capitulation bottom formed at $1.895, followed by a 0.5% late-session rebound.
- Final-hour volume spiked to 2.76M, breaking the trend of declining activity and hinting at early accumulation.
Technical Analysis
XRP’s decline was largely distribution-driven, fueled by whale selling that overwhelmed the $1.96 resistance and pushed the token into a persistent descending channel.
Support at $1.90–$1.91 acted as a key battleground. Aggressive buying after the $1.895 capitulation triggered a minor intraday reversal. Momentum indicators, including RSI and short-term stochastic, show deep oversold conditions—the first bullish divergence since last week’s breakdown.
The late-session volume spike suggests early accumulation, but the broader structure remains fragile. Bulls must reclaim $1.96 to break the descending channel and attempt a trend reversal. Failure to hold $1.90 could see XRP slide toward $1.82, then $1.73.
Key Levels & Considerations
- $1.90: Crucial support; a break may target October’s deep liquidity zones.
- $1.96: Key resistance; reclaiming it is necessary to restore short-term bullish momentum.
- ETF flows: Bitwise’s AUM growth could provide upside catalysts if volume accelerates.
- Momentum: Oversold conditions favor near-term bounces, but whale selling remains the dominant risk.
- Market sentiment: Elevated fear ensures XRP will remain highly sensitive to Bitcoin volatility.
