XRP advanced more than 45% in Q3, helped by roughly $307.9 million in U.S. spot XRP ETF inflows. Yet the token began October near $1.50 after several failed attempts to break above $1.70. Total ETF inflows have approached $1.8 billion, but the buying has not yet produced a sustained higher clearing price.
The price action suggests that ETF demand is being matched by sellers whenever XRP rallies. Buyers are supporting the market, but the available supply continues to meet those bids, leaving XRP near $1.50 rather than pushing it decisively through resistance.
Seven-day altcoin inflow transactions to exchanges reportedly rose to their highest level since October 2025. According to CryptoQuant, the increase was broad-based and was not concentrated among a small group of large wallets.
Transfers to exchanges should not automatically be interpreted as sales. They do, however, increase the amount of XRP that could potentially become available to sellers. This is particularly relevant after a quarterly gain of more than 45%, as some holders may look to realize profits near previous highs while ETF investors continue to accumulate.
Additional supply can absorb fresh demand without immediately causing XRP to fall. It can also keep the token from breaking higher until the number of willing sellers declines. Exchange balances and other supply metrics offer useful market context, but they cannot determine which holders sold during a specific rally.
XRP ETFs posted zero net flows on September 29 and 30 after recording stronger buying earlier in September. While two flat sessions do not change the broader quarterly inflow trend, they highlight the variability of marginal demand. Cumulative flows alone also cannot show whether current buyers are absorbing each new wave of available supply.
$1.54 to $1.70 Defines the Key XRP Price Range
The first hurdle for bulls is an hourly close above $1.54, which the primary report identifies as initial breakout confirmation. Clearing that level could allow for a move of roughly 10% toward $1.70, although reaching that target would not necessarily mean the wider supply overhang has been removed.
XRP has struggled to maintain rallies through the mid-$1.50s, while late-September attempts above $1.60 eventually faded. The late-August swing high near $1.70 represents the more significant resistance level. A sustained break above it would indicate that demand is absorbing enough available supply to change the market structure rather than simply producing another brief rally.
The first support area is $1.48–$1.50, close to XRP’s level when October began. A rejection followed by a break below this zone would put the recent base under pressure. Derivatives positioning and leverage could influence the size and speed of a move, but they cannot identify the specific spot-market sellers behind it.
The levels provide a way to assess XRP’s current price structure without making a directional forecast.
What Does XRP Need to Break Higher?
An hourly close above $1.54, followed by sustained momentum through the mid-$1.50s, would bring the late-August high near $1.70 into focus. Holding above that level would indicate that ETF and spot-market demand is absorbing enough supply to push through the area where previous rallies stalled.
A renewed rejection followed by a move below $1.48–$1.50 would instead indicate that sellers remain willing to provide XRP despite ongoing fund demand. It would not establish that ETF buyers have exited, nor would it identify the participants selling into the market. It would simply show that available demand has not yet absorbed enough supply to clear the market at higher prices.
Ripple’s association with XRP does not alter the immediate chart setup. The key factor is whether buyers can absorb the supply appearing at the levels where earlier rallies failed. Until XRP establishes itself above $1.70, cumulative ETF inflows remain evidence of demand rather than confirmation of an imminent breakout.
