Historical Patterns Suggest Early September May Mark Bitcoin Bottom Ahead of Q4 Surge – 12/9/2025
Historical trends indicate that Bitcoin (BTC) $115,912.40 may have already recorded its September 2025 low, around $107,000, during the first day of the month.
Looking back to July 2024, a recurring pattern emerges: Bitcoin often establishes its monthly low within the first ten days. Exceptions occurred in February, June, and August 2025, when lows materialized later, though the market still experienced early-month corrections before resuming broader trends.
Analysts speculate that these early-month lows may be influenced by institutional portfolio rebalancing or key macroeconomic events, which frequently cluster at the start of each month.
Oliver Knight, deputy managing editor for data and tokens at CoinDesk, notes: “Futures and options markets often expire at the end of the month or on the first day of the next, creating short-term volatility followed by a lull as traders rollover or reposition trades.”
While historical performance is not a guarantee of future results, Q4 has traditionally been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, delivering an average return of 85%. October, in particular, stands out, with only two losing months recorded since 2013.
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