Bitcoin slipped after another failed attempt to break above $80,000, as a surge in oil prices and persistent bearish positioning weighed on sentiment. Even so, the recent breakout structure suggests the uptrend could intensify if short sellers are forced to cover, while altcoin demand and capital flows continue to weaken.
The broader crypto market moved lower on Thursday, with bitcoin (BTC) down roughly 0.7% since midnight UTC, trading near $77,600. The decline followed Wednesday’s rally to its highest level since January, where selling pressure emerged just below key resistance at $80,000.
Macro headwinds contributed to the pullback. Oil prices climbed about 1.5% to $103 per barrel after reports that the U.S. seized three Iranian tankers in Asian waters, dampening appetite for risk assets. U.S. equity futures also edged lower, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both falling around 0.5%.
Ether (ETH) lagged behind bitcoin, dropping 2.5% to approximately $2,320 after failing to sustain momentum near $2,500 over the weekend.
Despite the short-term dip, bitcoin’s technical outlook remains constructive. The asset appears to have broken out of a multi-month consolidation range between $63,000 and $75,000 that had held since early February.
In derivatives markets, bitcoin futures open interest has eased to around 775,000 BTC from near-record levels earlier in the week, but remains elevated overall. Meanwhile, negative perpetual funding rates indicate that traders are still positioned on the bearish side.
This unusual setup has led some analysts to characterize the move as a “most hated” rally—one that could accelerate sharply if short positions are squeezed.
Altcoin markets, however, show signs of strain. Dogecoin (DOGE) has seen open interest climb above 14 billion tokens, a level rarely reached since October, alongside positive funding rates that point to increased bullish positioning. In contrast, declining open interest in bitcoin cash (BCH), chainlink (LINK), and litecoin (LTC) suggests capital is flowing out of several altcoins.
Order flow data supports the cautious view. The cumulative volume delta (CVD) indicates that sellers are dominating activity across major tokens such as XRP, solana (SOL), and ether, while only a few assets—including bitcoin, M, and CRO—are seeing net buying pressure. This divergence signals that the broader market has yet to fully confirm bitcoin’s upward move.
Volatility remains muted, with bitcoin and ether’s 30-day implied volatility indices holding near multi-month lows, reflecting calm market conditions despite geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing disruption in oil markets.
In options markets, traders continue to favor downside protection, with puts priced higher than calls on Deribit. However, recent positioning shows growing demand for bitcoin call options in the $80,000 to $85,000 range, indicating expectations for further upside.
Sector performance highlights continued weakness in altcoins. CoinDesk’s DeFi Select Index (DFX) dropped 2.7%, making it the worst-performing segment, while the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index declined 1.1%. CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index fell to 32/100, its lowest level in 10 days, underscoring a shift in investor preference toward bitcoin.
A few tokens defied the broader downturn. Spark (SPK) jumped more than 70% following its listing on Upbit, South Korea’s largest crypto exchange. Privacy-focused monero (XMR) also outperformed, gaining 3.3%, while dash (DASH) and zcash (ZEC) remained in negative territory.
Meanwhile, DeFi tokens stayed under pressure, with morpho and aave falling 4.6% and 2.8%, respectively, as sentiment in the sector remains fragile following the recent $290 million KelpDAO exploit.
