Bitcoin slipped below $77,000 during Asian trading hours Monday as rising oil prices and surging Treasury yields weighed on risk assets, with traders continuing to price in little chance of near-term Federal Reserve easing.
The decline comes against a backdrop of tightening financial conditions. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 5.13%, marking its highest close since 2007, while shorter-duration yields also extended last week’s advance to fresh 12-month highs. At the same time, prediction-market data shows overwhelming expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady, with odds of no policy change at 98% for June and 94% for July.
For bitcoin, the rate backdrop is critical. Elevated yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and tend to pressure speculative markets, particularly when inflation concerns—amplified by higher oil prices—are driving the move.
On-chain indicators, however, present a more nuanced picture.
Data cited by Binance Research shows that nearly 60% of bitcoin’s circulating supply has remained inactive for over a year, underscoring continued conviction among long-term holders. Exchange balances have also fallen to their lowest level in six years, pointing to limited immediate sell-side pressure.
Yet vulnerability is building elsewhere in the market.
Short-term holder MVRV—a metric comparing market price to the average acquisition cost of recent buyers—has dropped below 1, indicating that newer entrants are, on average, holding unrealized losses. This dynamic can amplify downside risk, as investors already underwater may be quicker to sell into further weakness triggered by macro developments.
Looking ahead, traders are focused on several potential catalysts this week. Nvidia earnings on Wednesday are expected to serve as a broader barometer for risk appetite given the company’s central role in the AI-driven equity rally. U.S. producer price index (PPI) data on Thursday will offer further insight into whether inflation pressures are spreading beyond energy.
In Washington, progress on the CLARITY Act—a key crypto market-structure bill—also remains on the radar.
For now, bitcoin is caught between supportive on-chain fundamentals and a challenging macro environment. While low exchange balances and dormant long-term supply may help limit sustained selling pressure, they offer little protection against sharp moves driven by rising yields or further deterioration in risk sentiment.
The near-term outlook hinges on whether BTC can stabilize in a high-rate environment, as markets weigh persistent inflation risks against the absence of imminent monetary easing.
