A U.S.–Iran agreement weighed on oil prices and supported equities, but Bitcoin’s response has been muted, with ETF outflows only recently pausing after an extended period of withdrawals. Market participants say investors are waiting for the deal to be formally signed before fully pricing in any positive impact.
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly moved above $67,000 late Monday before retreating below $66,000, signaling a more cautious reaction compared with broader risk assets that rallied on the Iran peace developments.
BTC traded near $65,845 on Tuesday, up 0.3% in the past 24 hours and 4.8% on the week, according to CoinDesk data. It hit an intraday high of $67,217 before easing. Ether outperformed with a 2.8% gain to $1,764, while Solana rose 3.2% to $73. XRP added 3.2% to $1.22, and Hyperliquid’s HYPE led major tokens with a 6.3% increase to $69.
Traditional markets reacted more strongly to the news. A memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, signed electronically by President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, helped boost sentiment, with Trump also indicating that the Strait of Hormuz would fully reopen on Friday.
Oil markets sold off sharply, with Brent crude dropping below $83 per barrel after its largest decline in over two weeks. Equities also rallied, with the S&P 500 up 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 gaining 3.1% on Monday.
Even so, Bitcoin has lagged the broader risk-on move.
“Oil dropped more than 4% and Asian equities jumped more than 3% on the ceasefire, but BTC barely moved,” said Jimmy Xue, co-founder and COO of Axis. He said the move looks more like a cautious relief rally than a confirmed shift into sustained crypto risk appetite.
The restraint reflects recent market history. Bitcoin has previously given back gains following earlier Iran-related relief rallies, including after an April ceasefire attempt and again after June 9 developments that later unraveled. Adding to uncertainty, Trump warned the agreement could still fall apart if Iran does not dismantle its nuclear program.
According to Xue, traders are likely waiting for the June 19 signing in Switzerland before treating the agreement as durable.
ETF flows also highlight caution. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have only just ended a four-week streak of outflows totaling about $5.4 billion, including a record weekly withdrawal of roughly $3.4 billion. A sustained return of inflows has yet to emerge, though continued movement of coins into cold storage suggests long-term holders remain steady.
Not all analysts are cautious, however.
“It’s a constructive setup for risk assets, including crypto,” said Chris Perkins, incoming head of Franklin Crypto at Franklin Templeton. He noted that improving macro conditions, alongside the recent SpaceX IPO, could help bring retail investors back into the crypto market.
Perkins also pointed to the CLARITY Act, which would define whether digital assets are classified as securities or commodities, saying markets currently view its passage as finely balanced but potentially significant for institutional adoption.
Attention now turns to upcoming central bank decisions. The Bank of Japan recently raised rates to 1%, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold steady, and the Federal Reserve is due to announce its policy decision on Wednesday.
For Bitcoin—often seen as a high-beta risk asset—the Fed outcome and Friday’s Iran deal signing are expected to be the key drivers determining whether the current rebound extends or fades like previous rallies.
