For years, Strategy traded at a significant premium to the value of its bitcoin holdings, giving the company broad flexibility to raise capital — an advantage Michael Saylor and his team used extensively.
That premium has now disappeared. Strategy’s (MSTR) enterprise multiple to net asset value (mNAV) has fallen below 1, placing the firm in unfamiliar territory.
With the stock down to around $82 — roughly 85% below its November 2024 peak — enterprise value has dropped to about $50.4 billion. Meanwhile, its bitcoin holdings are worth approximately $51.1 billion at a $60,000 BTC price. In effect, the market is now valuing the company at less than the value of its underlying bitcoin. At these levels, issuing new equity becomes dilutive, as shares would be sold below intrinsic asset value.
Enterprise mNAV is calculated by dividing enterprise value — including market capitalization, debt, and perpetual preferred stock, minus cash reserves — by the value of the company’s bitcoin holdings.
While Strategy can still tap equity markets, doing so under current conditions could intensify criticism. Recent bitcoin purchases have already been viewed as dilutive to common shareholders, prompting backlash from investors.
There is increasing concern that Strategy is being priced more like a closed-end fund than an operating business. Similar vehicles, such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust before its ETF conversion, historically traded at premiums during periods of strong demand but later shifted to persistent discounts as sentiment cooled. These discounts often persist due to the lack of a redemption mechanism to align share prices with underlying asset value.
Unlike traditional closed-end funds, however, Strategy retains multiple strategic levers. These include issuing debt or equity when accretive, refinancing liabilities, generating cash flow from its software operations, and actively managing its capital structure.
