U.S. equity futures edged higher after reports that the United States and Iran had agreed to pause hostilities and restart negotiations.
Tom Lee Says Crypto Drop Driven by Quarter-End Flows
Thomas “Tom” Lee, chairman of Ethereum treasury firm Bitmine and a prominent bull across stocks and digital assets, said last week’s crypto selloff was largely due to portfolio rebalancing rather than weakening fundamentals.
“With June quarter-end approaching, it’s typical to see ‘window dressing,’ where investors cut exposure to assets that have underperformed over the past three months,” Lee said in Bitmine’s weekly treasury note.
Bitcoin and ether have both posted steep second-quarter losses—down roughly 12% and 25%, respectively—and remain just above their 2026 lows with only days left before Q3 begins.
Bitmine continued buying during the dip, though at a slower pace. The firm added $43 million worth of ETH last week, its smallest purchase since early May.
SpaceX Set for Nasdaq 100 Inclusion
Elon Musk’s newly listed SpaceX (SPCX) will be added to the Nasdaq 100 Index ahead of the July 7 open. Shares rose 1.9% in pre-market trading to $156.18.
Bitcoin Rises as Strategy Unveils Monetization Plan
Bitcoin climbed from around $59,700 to above $60,400 on Monday after Strategy announced a major shift in how it manages its balance sheet.
Executive Chairman Michael Saylor introduced a “BTC Monetization Program,” allowing the firm to sell bitcoin to build U.S. dollar reserves, fund dividends and interest payments, and repurchase stock. Sales for reserve-building are capped at $1.25 billion.
The company also boosted its USD reserves to $2.55 billion—enough to cover about 17.4 months of dividends—and raised the STRC dividend rate by 50 basis points to 12%, effective July.
These steps aim to address recent concerns around STRC, which fell to a record low of $82.53 last week, well below its $100 par value, amid declining dividend coverage and limited cash reserves.
Strategy Rolls Out New Capital Framework
In response to recent pressure, Strategy introduced a Digital Credit Capital Framework featuring:
- A board-approved USD reserve policy
- A revised STRC dividend plan
- A digital credit securities research initiative
- A share buyback program
- A bitcoin monetization strategy
The company also lifted the STRC dividend to 12% from 11.5%. Shares of MSTR rose 7.5% pre-market, while STRC jumped over 9%, and bitcoin ticked up to around $60,500.
IREN Added to Russell 1000
AI infrastructure firm IREN gained roughly 3% in pre-market trading after confirming its inclusion in the Russell 1000 Index, effective June 26 following FTSE Russell’s annual reconstitution.
On-Chain Data Flags Potential Selling Pressure
On-chain indicators are signaling caution as bitcoin trades near $58,800 following a week of losses.
CryptoQuant data shows repeated spikes in Spot Exchange Inflow Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) since late May—an indicator that long-dormant coins are being moved to exchanges, often ahead of selling.
At the same time, Derivatives Exchange Inflow CDD has been declining, suggesting the selling pressure is coming from long-term holders rather than leveraged traders. Historically, this type of activity tends to reflect more sustained distribution.
Similar patterns have preceded notable declines in previous cycles, including early 2025 and mid-2024, though not always.
Bitcoin Nears Worst Month Since 2022
Bitcoin is down about 19% in June with just two U.S. trading sessions remaining, putting it on track for its worst monthly performance since June 2022, when it fell 37%.
It is also set to close Q2 down roughly 12%, marking a third straight quarterly decline—something not seen since 2022.
However, the pace of losses is slowing. Bitcoin dropped 23% in Q4 2025 and 22.2% in Q1 2026, compared with about 12% so far in Q2, suggesting bearish momentum may be easing.
Stocks Gain While Crypto Lags
U.S. stocks rose in pre-market trading as renewed Middle East diplomacy improved risk sentiment, but cryptocurrencies have yet to follow.
Bitcoin hovered near $60,000, while the Nasdaq-100 tracking Invesco QQQ Trust gained about 1.2%. Gold held above $4,000 per ounce, Brent crude remained below $70, and the U.S. Dollar Index stayed above 101.
Crypto-linked stocks such as IREN and Cipher Mining rose about 3%, while Strategy gained around 1% and STRC climbed 2%.
Bitcoin Tests Key Fibonacci Support
Bitcoin recently approached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its 2023–2025 rally—commonly known as the “golden ratio,” a key technical support zone.
Holding this level could attract buyers, while a breakdown may trigger further selling pressure.
So far, the level has held, with bitcoin rebounding toward $60,000.
Crypto Muted Despite Easing Geopolitical Tensions
Despite reports that the U.S. and Iran have agreed to halt strikes and resume talks in Qatar, crypto markets have remained subdued.
Bitcoin traded near $59,700, slightly lower on the day and down nearly 7% over the past week. Ether and Solana posted modest gains, while XRP and dogecoin continued to weaken.
Equities responded positively to the news, but crypto has shown little reaction, continuing a recent pattern where geopolitical relief rallies fade quickly.
The market’s next key tests will be the outcome of U.S.-Iran talks and upcoming U.S. inflation data, both of which could influence bitcoin’s next move.
